Bull Market Pullback: Why the 4.5% Dip Held the 50-DMA

The S&P 500 experienced a 4.5% pullback from its May 27 record high of 7,621 to 7,248 (the 50-day moving average), which the author characterizes as a healthy bull market correction rather than the start of a bear market. The bounce back to 7,431.46 on broad participation and positive money flows suggests the uptrend remains intact. However, the author warns of underlying risks including record margin debt ($1.30 trillion), declining retail demand, and inverted equity risk premium as 10-year Treasuries now yield more than S&P 500 earnings. The portfolio remains at 100% equity exposure based on positive money flow signals, but disciplined risk management is maintained ahead of historically weak summer months and midterm election volatility.